Outcome Stats — Similar Market Outcome Distribution
The /outcome-stats endpoint is the core B2B semantic search product. Given a market question (text query), it finds historically similar resolved markets and returns the outcome distribution: what percentage resolved YES vs NO, average resolution time, and the most common resolution patterns. For agents that need to know "what usually happens when markets like this occur?"
Endpoint
GET /api/feeds/similar-markets/outcome-stats?q=Will+Bitcoin+hit+100k&limit=20Parameters
| Param | Type | Required | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
q | query | Yes | The market question text to search for similar resolved markets |
limit | query | No | Max similar markets to aggregate (default: 20) |
Pricing
$0.01 per request (upfront payment — settled before the handler runs).
Example request
curl -H "X-PAYMENT: <x402-payment-header>" \
"https://kronos.seshat.markets/api/feeds/similar-markets/outcome-stats?q=Will+Bitcoin+hit+100k&limit=20"Example response (truncated)
{
"query": "Will Bitcoin hit 100k",
"yes_pct": 0.68,
"no_pct": 0.32,
"avg_resolution_hours": 48,
"similar_count": 15,
"top_matches": [
{
"market_key": "btc-100k-2024",
"question": "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by end of 2024?",
"similarity": 0.89,
"outcome": "yes",
"resolved_at": "2024-12-31T23:59:59Z"
}
]
}Use cases
Base Rate Estimation
Before betting on "Will BTC hit $100k?", check that 68% of similar markets resolved YES. This is your empirical base rate — the prior before adjusting for current conditions.
Resolution Time Forecasting
Use avg_resolution_hours: 48 to estimate how long similar markets take to resolve. Critical for options expiry selection and capital allocation timing.
Sample Size Validation
If similar_count: 3, the outcome distribution is statistically weak. If similar_count: 50, the 68% YES rate is robust. Always check sample size before trusting the distribution.
Market Screening
Query multiple market questions and screen for high-conviction setups: markets where >75% of analogs resolved in one direction with 20+ samples. These are the highest-edge opportunities.
Frequently asked questions
What is an outcome stats API for prediction markets?
How do I estimate base rates for crypto prediction markets?
GET /api/feeds/similar-markets/outcome-stats?q=Will+Bitcoin+hit+100k. If 68% of similar markets resolved YES, that's your empirical base rate — the prior before adjusting for current conditions. Always check similar_count for sample size.How much does the outcome stats API cost?
$0.01 per request (upfront payment — settled before the handler runs). Pay with USDC on Solana or Base via x402. Use /similar-markets at $0.005 for individual market matches.